Projection of hydrological responses to changing future climate of Upper Awash Basin using QSWAT model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Background Projecting future streamflow variation or the hydrological impact of climate change plays a pivotal role in sustainable implication planning water resources management. Therefore, this study predicts potential change’s on components Upper Awash Basin (UAB). The applied statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to generate high-resolution data from output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) under representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) scenarios. To analyze trend rainfall temperature, non-parametric Mann-Kendall, Modified Mann-Kendall tests, Sen’s slope estimator, changing point (Pettit) tests were used. downscaled is used as input calibrated validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (QSWAT) assess UAB hydrology. Results results show that annual temperature are significantly increased (p < 0.05) RCP4.5 8.5 ensemble mean both short- long-term rainfall, maximum minimum mostly visible second period (the 2060s). Climate likely cause persistent decreases surface runoff (SUR_Q) increases actual evapotranspiration (ET) all scenarios three periods. Reduction SUR_Q despite an increase could be due increment ET. also identified inconsistent seasonal changes projected precipitation considerably overall climatic conditions. Conclusions This research essential develop interdisciplinary approach integrates environmental policies coherent use management ecological protection basin, including other similar basins.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Systems Research
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2193-2697']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-023-00305-8